When the Cincinnati Reds were in Milwaukee last week, Terry Francona was asked about what has made the Brewers so successful over the years.
“One of the biggest things, and they probably caught (flack) for this going back to (trading Josh) Hader, but then when you come out and win, it shuts people up,” Francona said. “They’re not afraid to trade or jettison. They keep it moving. They’ve been really good at it.”
They’ve made trades that were very unpopular in Milwaukee at the time, dealing All-Stars like Hader, Devin Williams, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes. Last winter, they traded a recent Rookie of the Year candidate in Caleb Durbin. The move landed them their No. 2 starting pitcher, their No. 5 starting pitcher and their starting third baseman.
“Damn,” Francona said about that trade, “They’ve done some good things.”
The Reds, who haven’t made those types of trades over the last few years, have to do some organizational soul searching leading up to the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline on Aug. 3.
When asked last week about the Reds’ plans for the trade deadline, Nick Krall said that it was too early to declare whether or not the team would be buyers or sellers.
If they go on a run over the next month, they’d like to be able to add to the team at the deadline like they did in 2025. That remains the ideal scenario for the Reds, but they’d probably need to go on a June of 2023-like run to put themselves in that position (The Reds went 18-9 in June of 2023. If the 2026 Reds won 18 of their next 27 games, they’d be 59-57. At the trade deadline last year, the 2025 Reds were five games over .500 with a 57-52 record).
Right now, there are 22 games left until the trade deadline. The Reds are seven games under .500, seven games back of a Wild Card spot and in fourth-to-last place in the National League. The three teams below the Reds (the Giants, Mets and Rockies) have already declared themselves sellers.
If the Reds do get hot, a standout relief pitcher who could be a late-game anchor, a leadoff hitter and a center fielder would be their biggest needs, and they could also look for a second baseman, a third baseman and another bat (the fact that they have so many needs isn’t a good sign).
If the season continues down the downward path that it’s on, the Reds have a question to answer.
Is this 2022 or 2024?
Would it be better to make some unpopular moves, deal players with multiple years of team control and try to engineer a quick rebuild? Or do they play it safe like they did in 2024, flip a couple of players on expiring contracts and keep the core of the roster intact?
In retrospect, the Reds should have done more at the deadline in 2024 when the Reds were 52-56 at the end of July. That year, they only flipped Frankie Montas and Lucas Sims. The only meaningful part of their deadline return, in retrospect, was Joey Wiemer, who was later flipped to the Royals as a small piece of the Brady Singer trade.
At the deadline in 2024, India was off the table in trade talks. That would have been the perfect time to trade Alexis Díaz. The Reds held onto Nick Martinez (he went on to return in 2025 on the qualifying offer) as well as a couple of relievers (Justin Wilson and Buck Farmer) in the final years of their contracts.
The Reds’ strategy at the 2024 deadline was very underwhelming in retrospect. In the Montas trade, the Reds got back a big league veteran in Jakob Junis to provide pitching depth instead of maximizing the long-term value of a potential return. Also, the Reds actually had to trade one of their veteran relievers because of an upcoming roster crunch with pitchers about to return from the IL. Even though they had veteran relievers to spare, they only dealt one of them in Sims.
Your direction at the trade deadline — how all-in you go or how much you kick the can down the road — are organizational decisions. 2022 was the only year over the last decade where the Reds really sold a lot at the deadline, and even in 2022 they held onto players on expiring contracts like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Mike Minor.
The Reds don’t like completely giving up on a season.
Is it time to do things differently?
A big picture look at the Reds’ roster outlook
Here’s the contractual status for some notable Reds
Under contract through 2026: Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson, Brady Singer, Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, Brock Burke, Nathaniel Lowe
Under contract through 2027 with player option for 2027: Emilio Pagán
Under contract through 2027: Nick Lodolo
Under contract through 2028: Tony Santillan (injured), Graham Ashcraft (injured), JJ Bleday
Under contract through 2029+: Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Ke’Bryan Hayes
The roster outlook is almost like a donut. There are a bunch of guys in the final year of their contract. There are a bunch of guys under contract through the rest of the decade. And there’s not much in the middle.
Looking ahead to 2027, considering who will be free agents at the end of this season, next year’s Reds have major needs at catcher (one of the hardest positions to find in MLB) and center field (another one of the hardest positions to find in MLB) and in the bullpen (with three or four relievers set to hit free agency), and they also have big question marks at second base and third base. They don’t have a leadoff hitter right now, and you’re also always looking for another middle of the order bat.
Will the Reds be able to fill all of those needs next winter with the low-payroll setup that they usually have in place?
It feels like the Reds need more ammunition just to build their 2027 roster.
In 2027, they could end up counting on prospects like first/third baseman Cam Collier (21 years old, in Double-A) outfielder/DH Héctor Rodríguez (22 years old, in Triple-A) and center fielder Carlos Jorge (22 years old, in Triple-A), but that would make the Reds an incredibly young and inexperienced team in 2027.
Because the players in the age range of Reds’ top prospects (Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo) are already contributing in the big leagues, the farm system isn’t highly rated right now.
Going back to the payroll question, the Reds went over budget this year to sign Eugenio Suárez. Do they need to get back under budget if the team is out of the playoff mix around the trade deadline? Would a trade deadline sell save the Reds some money that they could reapply in 2027?
Comparisons around MLB to consider
In 2023 and 2025, when the Reds were looking to buy at the trade deadline but ended up only making minor moves (Sam Moll in 2023 and Zach Littell, Miguel Andujar and Ke’Bryan Hayes in 2025), we heard a lot about how few sellers there really were in a given year.
The Rockies, A’s, Marlins, Pirates and White Sox have spent most of this decade rebuilding, and they’ve all typically had available players at the deadline (including Moll, Andujar and Hayes).
Each year, though, there have been a few other teams who weren’t in rebuilds but recognized where they were at in the standings and made a strategic decision to sell in a major way.
Here are a few examples.
-The 2024 Blue Jays were eight games under .500 at the end of July and made eight deals at the trade deadline where they were sellers. In 2025, the Blue Jays made the World Series. The 2024 deals have paid off so much in the long run that The Athletic recently had a story, “How the 2024 trade deadline is keeping the Blue Jays afloat”
-In 2023, the Cardinals dealt four impact pitchers at the trade deadline. In 2025, they traded their closer, a top reliever and two starting pitchers even though St. Louis had a .500 record at the end of July. Those trades restocked the farm system, and now the organization is in an exciting spot with a young roster that’s exceeding expectations in 2026 (47-40 record).
-The 2025 Diamondbacks traded two All-Star hitters as well as an impact starting pitcher when they were seven games under .500 at the end of July. The younger version of Arizona’s roster ended up making a run in August and September and barely missed the playoffs.
-The 2025 Orioles entered the season with big expectations. When they flopped, they punted at the deadline by dealing eight of their best players.
-The 2024 Rays were two games over .500 at the end of July. But because there were so few sellers and because the front office recognized that this team wasn’t a World Series contender, Tampa dealt some really good players with multiple years of team control (Randy Arozerena, Isaac Paredes and Jason Adam), pivoted and acquired three players who are top-20 prospects in the organization right now. Now, even though the prospects they received in these deals haven’t debuted yet, they’re one of the best teams in the AL. Tampa has the ability to trade some of these prospects to go all-in at the deadline this year.
Many of these trades from teams like the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Orioles and Rays didn’t pan out for the selling team as the prospects failed to develop into impact big leaguers. But there’s value in getting a lot of shots on goal from a trade perspective.
The last decade of the Reds’ trade history is a reminder of that. While some of their most high-profile trades haven’t been home runs, they acquired Luis Castillo for Dan Straily, Eugenio Suárez for Alfredo Simon and Héctor Rodríguez for Tyler Naquin.
It’s not always the biggest trades that turn out to be the most important. That shows the importance of volume when you’re in position to be a seller at the deadline.
What the Reds would want if they sell at the deadline
Nick Krall has an archetype of player that he values in the draft, in international free agency and in trades.
“We really made a push to focus on better athletes and more starting pitchers and to develop those players in the system,” Krall said a few years ago. “ We want to add as many premium athletes up the middle as possible.”
The Reds are prioritizing up-the-middle position players at catcher, shortstop and center field who have demonstrated a consistent approach at the plate and the ability to get on base, as well as starting pitchers with upside. Offensively, instead of pushing for true sluggers, the Reds value the types of guys who can hit anywhere in the order (leadoff or in the cleanup spot) because of their versatile skill set at the plate.
To get a good potential long-term answer at catcher, center field or in the leadoff spot, you’d have to give up something of value.
One thing to keep in mind: If you prioritize getting big league-ready players in return at the deadline, or players right on the cusp of making their big league debuts, you might sell yourself short in terms of the value you’d be getting. The most valuable young players available in trade talks are typically younger prospects who might not debut for a couple of years.
What the Reds could get in return for some of their players on expiring contracts
Comparable deals for Brady Singer (a durable back-end starter on an expiring deal)
-Chris Paddack to the Tigers in 2025 for a teenage athletic catcher who became the No. 20 prospect in the Twins’ farm system.
-Zach Littell to the Reds in 2025 for a risk/reward A-ball pitcher with intriguing stuff
-Adrian Houser to the Rays in 2025 for a former top-100 prospect who had become a change of scenery guy
Comparable deals for Brock Burke, Caleb Ferguson and Pierce Johnson (solid veteran relievers on expiring deals)
A recent trade deadline trend around MLB is the exploding value of elite setup relievers and closers. But unless one of the Reds’ relievers gets really hot in July, they’d likely fit into a different tier of player from a trade value perspective.
Teams out of the playoff race dealing veteran relief pitchers, especially left-handed pitchers, on expiring contracts is a tale as old as time. The question for the Reds, if they end up as sellers, would be if they only trade one (like they did in 2022), or if they’d be willing to trade in bulk for the first time in a while.
-Kyle Finnegan to the Tigers in 2025 for a No. 15 ranked prospect in the organization who was a recent third-round pick (this deal would be on the high-end of a comparison)
-Caleb Ferguson to the Mariners in 2025 for a 19-year-old pitcher with velocity ranked No. 13 in the organization
-Danny Coulombe to the Twins in 2025 for a recent sixth-round pick
-Phil Maton to the Rangers in 2025 for the No. 27 and No. 28 prospects in the organization (one is a recent seventh-round pick)
Comparable deals for Nathaniel Lowe and Eugenio Suárez (veteran sluggers on expiring contracts)
Lowe looks like the Reds’ most tradable piece. Héctor Rodríguez’s bat looks pretty ready for a big league call up, but having Lowe in the DH spot makes it tricky to get Rodríguez playing time right now. The Reds are very happy to have Lowe’s bat on their roster right now, but priorities could change if the Reds end up selling and thinking ahead toward 2027.
Potential Eugenio Suárez trades would fall into a similar bucket/archetype, but he’s a difficult case study here. Lowe is cheaper and has been much more productive in 2026, so he’d likely have more trade value this year. But is there a team that’s willing to place a bet on Suárez getting hot in the final two months of the season? Also, would the Reds be willing to eat some of the money to get a better return for Suárez?
-Miguel Andujar to the Reds in 2025 for a young starting pitcher flier who was a recent fourth-round pick
-Dylan Carlson from the Rays to the Cardinals for an intriguing but unproductive big league reliever (Shawn Armstrong, who ended up really working out for the Rays)
-Josh Bell to the Marlins in 2023 for a struggling former first-round pick who needed a change of scenery
-Garrett Cooper to the Padres in 2023 for a young big league starting pitcher struggling to piece it together (Ryan Weathers) — this one turned into a coup for Miami
-Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs in 2023 for the No. 14 and No. 16 ranked prospects in the organization
Comparable deals for Tyler Stephenson (catchers rarely get traded, but he could fill a need for a team and would be one of the only catchers available via trade. He’s in a contract year).
What are the Reds going to do at catcher in 2027? Stephenson said at the start of spring training that he hadn’t spoken with the Reds about an extension in a couple of years. Alfredo Duno is a fascinating prospect in Double-A, but he has a ways to go defensively and is still very young. Backup Jose Trevino is under contract for next year. In recent seasons, average catchers have gotten notably more expensive in free agency. Do the Reds make an effort to keep Stephenson for 2027, or do they trade him to add more flexibility that they could use to land a new catcher next season?
-Christian Vasquez to the Astros in 2022 for the No. 29 and No. 30 prospects in the organization — prospect No. 30 (Wilyer Abreu) broke out in the big leagues as a standout outfielder a few years later with Boston
-Nick Fortes to the Rays in 2025 for a speedy upper-level center fielder ranked No. 28 in the organization
-Danny Jansen to the Brewers in 2025 for a No. 25 ranked prospect (a High-A infielder who was a former highly-regarded international free agent)
-Freddie Fermin to the Padres in 2025 for two veteran fill-in starting pitching depth pieces.
The bundle
Since the Reds have so many players on expiring deals and since they’d ideally be able to land a long-term solution at catcher, center field or the leadoff spot in a deadline move, one strategy they could take would be bundling a few of these players together to get a better return.
Trading Singer and Lowe together, or trading a couple of relievers together would help the Reds get a better frontline piece in a trade.
What the Reds could get in return for some players with multiple years of team control
Comparable deals for JJ Bleday (a starting outfielder under team control through 2028)
The problem with trading Bleday would be the fact that he’d be such a cost-controlled starter for them for the next few seasons. You’d be hard pressed to find a more exciting corner outfield option at Bleday’s projected price point than Bleday would be. If you traded him, then the Reds would be back where they were in 2025 when they had to give up a lot to acquire a low-cost outfielder in Gavin Lux. On the other hand, Bleday has a .811 OPS this season despite a cold month of June and would fetch a nice return in a trade. With multiple years of team control, he feels like the type of hitter that the Reds were trying to trade for at the trade deadline in 2023 and 2025. This time, they could ask for the type of prospect return that they were unwilling to part with in 2023 and 2025.
-Lane Thomas to Cleveland in 2024 for a recent second-round pick (a teenage starting pitching prospect with notable upside, ranked eighth in the organization), the No. 22 prospect in the organization (a Low-A shortstop) and a backup utility player type (Jose Tena) who was in Triple-A and was ready for a call-up to the big leagues
-Jake Burger to the Marlins for a borderline top-100 prospect (a polished starting pitching prospect in Jake Eder)
-Jesus Sanchez to the Astros for a big league ready fifth-starter type plus the No. 13 prospect in the organization (a bat to ball/speedy middle infielder who was a recent draft pick out of high school).
Comparable deals for Nick Lodolo (frontline starting pitcher, having an inconsistent but improving season right now, under contract through 2027
The boldest move — trading a core player who’s just hitting arbitration like Spencer Steer or Andrew Abbott would fall more into the “seismic” category — that the Reds could realistically make at the deadline would be dealing Lodolo. If they dealt him, their 2027 rotation would take a major hit. He hasn’t really hit his stride this season, but between 2022 and 2025 he was one of the most exciting young lefties in the game. The talent is obvious, but he’s getting more expensive and will be a free agent at the end of next season. His injury history is something to consider when looking at a potential contract extension for him. Looking at his trade value, the potential of a lockout in 2027 creates some questions. No one knows how the looming threats in 2027 will impact the 2026 deadline, or even what free agency is going to look like at the end of the 2027 season. Are players with two years of team control heading into 2027 as valuable as they’d typically be considering the uncertainty about next year?
-Aaron Civale to the Rays in 2023 for top-100 prospect Kyle Manzardo (a slugging first baseman)
-Zach Eflin to the Orioles in 2024 for the organization’s No. 10 prospect (a recent second-round pick), the No. 17 prospect (another recent second-round pick) plus a recent 10th round pick.
-Tyler Mahle to the Twins in 2022 for prospects Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand
-Erick Fedde to St. Louis as a part of a three-team trade in 2024 where the Cardinals gave up solid big league super utility player Tommy Edman
-Trevor Rogers to the Orioles in 2024 for two borderline top-100, pretty close to big league ready prospects (this deal would be on the high-end of a comparison).
The big question at the end of the day if they end up as trade deadline sellers
How important is it for the Reds to avoid a 90-loss season?
If that’s important to them, which it apparently was in 2024, then they could take a more conservative approach at the deadline. They could swap a reliever or two, deal Lowe to open up a space for a prospect like Rodríguez and keep alive the fighting chance that the team could go on a run over the final two months of the season. They’d keep the core of the roster together and hope that things go better in 2027.
Or, the Reds could sell the daylights out of this team (like the examples of the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rays, etc.). That type of sell would give the Reds a much better chance of filling the breadth of big needs that the 2027 roster will have.
Which path they’d take would be an organizational decision.